I was shocked that President Donald Trump launched a military attack on Venezuela to kidnap Nicolas Maduro. How could it possibly be worth it?
Why give up a shot at the Nobel Peace Prize in exchange for only Venezuelan oil and a single narco-terrorist (or two, if you count the spouse)?
What’s in it for Trump?
But then I thought about it. Trump probably decided that the damn prize committee wouldn’t award him the Nobel anyway. Trump has repeatedly claimed that he’s settled eight wars in the past few months, but the committee might ask a few questions about those wars.
First, are Trump’s numbers gross or net?
Trump says that he’s ended eight wars since he took office. But, during the same time, Trump has ordered the military to bomb seven countries: Yemen (where we bombed the Houthis); Somalia (the Islamic State); Syria (the Islamic State); Nigeria (Islamic State-linked military camps); Iran (nuclear facilities); Venezuela (drug boats, loading facility, and then the most recent attack); and Iraq (Islamic State personnel).
That’s quite a list for a guy who says he’ll keep the United States out of foreign conflicts.
How are we supposed to count this list? Do we give Trump credit for having ended eight wars? Doing his best to start seven new ones? Or netting it all out to leave him +1?
But that’s just the first question.
Here’s question number two: Has Trump actually ended any of the eight wars for which he’s claimed credit?
Trump claims to have ended the war between Israel and Hamas. It’s true that the hostages have been released, and the two sides didn’t kill each other for a few days. But that’s more a temporary ceasefire than a real peace agreement. The Israelis still occupy a big chunk of the Gaza Strip; Hamas does not appear to be disarming; the two sides have started killing each other again (though now at a slower rate); and there’s no sign of an interim governing structure. Maybe it takes more than a news conference to resolve permanently a spat in which the competing sides have been killing each other for decades.
Trump also claims to have ended a war between Israel and Iran, but that wasn’t an actual war. That was more a brief exchange of missiles. And the two sides continue to threaten each other with possible future missile attacks (with Trump chiming in that he may join that fun). I’m not sure this war ever started. If it did, I’m not sure that it’s over. No credit there.
Now we get to the lesser wars. You may never have heard that these other situations were wars, but Trump claims to have resolved them. I put these other wars in the same category as the Donald-Melania war, which started early last Tuesday and ended late Tuesday night, and the Donald-Gavin war, which just now appears to be breaking out.
Anyway, Egypt and Ethiopia have some kind pissing match over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. There was never an actual shooting war there. I’m not sure Trump gets credit for ending a war that never started.
There was in fact shooting along the border between India and Kashmir. Trump says that U.S. trade concessions helped to end that war. India, however, denies that any trade-linked talks ever took place. I think that if Trump ends wars, the warring parties have to give him credit. Otherwise, no Nobel Peace Prize.
Things are tense between Serbia and Kosovo, but NATO peacekeepers are on the ground and have prevented large-scale fighting. Ooh, ooh: If the Nobel gang gives the Peace Prize to NATO, one president’s gonna be mighty pissed off.
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo have a conflict involving M-23, a Congolese Tutsi-led rebel group. M-23 rejects the current peace deal, because it excluded them, and the parties have started killing each other again. No peace, no credit. Sorry, Donald.
There was also a spat between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Trump brought the parties to the White House, but they haven’t yet signed any peace deal, and the situation remains tense. I don’t think Trump should be allowed to jump the gun on putting down the guns.
There was a border clash between Thailand and Cambodia. The U.S. applied pressure and there was a ceasefire, but then fighting resumed, and then there was another ceasefire, and there still isn’t a definitive end to the conflict.
I’m not sure that Trump has actually settled any wars. Perhaps resolving wars requires more than putting people in a room for a few minutes and asking them to say that they’re now friends.
Even if Trump has ended a war, he may well be instigating more than he’s ending. There’s no Nobel Peace Prize for that. I’m pretty sure the awards committee insists on a net positive.
But now I understand why Trump went after Venezuela: He thought he was out of the running for the Peace Prize, anyway, so he might as well start something new.
On reflection, however, the last situation — where Thailand and Cambodia declared a ceasefire, resumed fighting, and then declared another ceasefire — gave me a thought. Trump solved that war once. It started again, but now he can solve it yet a second time. That would be a ninth peace deal that he’s worked out.
And if we again bomb Iran, and then Trump works out a new peace deal, that would be ten. And maybe Trump could resolve for a second time the dispute in Rwanda. That would be eleven, and we’re just getting started!
With just a little bit of work, Trump could resolve dozens of wars by the end of next year.
Maybe I’m wrong: Attacking Venezuela doesn’t put the Nobel Peace Prize out of reach after all.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.
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