U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s announcement Thursday afternoon he will not run for re-election but instead will travel the country to “mobilize the middle and bring Americans together” is being seen by some as confirmation he will run for president as a third-party candidate, but some Democrats are thrilled he will be out of the Senate.
The West Virginia Democrat, one of the most-vulnerable and most unpopular in the Senate, has often been a challenge for Democrats for years.
Now, some strategists are worried about Democrats losing the Senate majority, while others are pointing out Manchin’s chances of being re-elected my not have been good, and would have forced Democrats to invest heavily in a seat they may not have been able to hold. West Virginia Republican Governor Jim Justice is running for that seat, and is expected to win it next year. In May, CNN ranked Manchin’s Senate seat the number one most likely to flip to the GOP.
“West Virginia was a ‘prime pickup opportunity’ for the GOP in the Senate whether Manchin ran or not,” observes former Chicago Tribune editor Mark Jacob. “He was useful in the past to give the Democrats the Senate majority. But he’s a Democrat in name only, standing in the way of vital climate action. Good riddance.”
Manchin’s announcement was not unexpected. After being one of the top opponents of President Joe Biden’s agenda, in August Manchin toyed with leaving the party and becoming an independent. U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, also one of Biden’s top opponents on the left, did just that last year.
Daniel Nichanian, editor-in-chief of Bolts Magazine, which reports on “local elections and obscure institutions that shape public policy,” weighed in:
“To hold Senate in 2024, Dems must defend Montana, PLUS Ohio, PLUS Arizona & Wisconsin & Michigan & Pennsylvania, PLUS the White House. Or, if they stumble in just 1 of those, they must replace one by a GOP-held seat, so unseat [Rick] Scott or [Ted] Cruz.”
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“This is as narrow a path to a Senate majority as it gets, but it exists, & Dems did defy trends in 2022: Hold onto all Biden states (certainly not a stretch based on the 2022/2023 cycles), & get 2 longtime incumbents to survive (tricky, but neither is a given at all for GOP),” he adds.
Roll Call on Wednesday announced its top 10 list of most vulnerable U.S. Senators “includes only two Republicans, Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida.”
Senator Cruz’s seat is now getting a lot of attention from Democrats.
“Joe Manchin’s retirement almost certainly means Democrats will lose the WV Senate seat. You know where they can pick one up this time? In Texas by defeating Ted Cruz next November,” Julián Castro also noted. “Best pickup opportunity on the map this cycle.”
Castro, a Texas Democrat woh served as President Barack Obama’s HUD Secretary and Mayor of San Antonio, went further.
“For those who roll their eyes at the idea that Texas is winnable… it’s been moving strongly toward Dems in the Trump era. Obama 2012 lost by 16, Hillary by 9, Biden by 5.5. Beto 2018 lost to Cruz by 3 and Dems picked up 2 seats in Congress, 2 in state sen and 12 in state house,” he noted.
Meanwhile, Democratic anger at Manchin, long palpable, appears to be growing.
Sawyer Hackett, Democratic strategist and senior adviser to Julián Castro, summed up what many appeared to be thinking: “Joe Manchin is almost single-handedly to blame for 5 million children falling back into poverty last year. Not a great legacy to kickstart a long shot bid for President.”
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Former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich appeared to agree:
“Joe Manchin (along with Sinema & the GOP) helped put five million children back into poverty by blocking the extension of the expanded Child Tax Credit. Five. Million. Remember this whenever you hear him preach about the virtues of the so-called ‘middle.’”
The Nation’s Elie Mystal did not hold back his anger, “All the people who said we had to go easy on Manchin letting kids starve because he was trying to hold the Senate ‘for the Dems’ should now confront the fact that Manchin just pulled a ‘f*ck them kids’ because he felt like it for no electoral upside.”
SiriusXM’s Dean Obeidallah appears pleased: “Joe Manchin BLOCKED Biden’s Build Back Better bill which would’ve helped people like my mother by providing her with a home health aide covered by the government. Millions of seniors and disabled people didn’t get that coverage because of Manchin. Good riddance Manchin!!”
“This is actually incredibly good news,” says political strategist and former Biden ad writer Cliff Schecter. “God knows how much we would’ve wasted on this asshat of betrayal, and he 100% would’ve lost anyhow. Now we’re don’t have to spend a cent there, can put it to good use protecting [Jon] Tester, Sherrod [Brown], etc.”
Esquire’s Charles Pierce snarked, “Joe Manchin is leaving the Senate to wander the earth looking for people who want a ‘centrist’ like him, just days after Democrats won big.”